Gasoline prices are directly related to crude oil prices and in the recent scenario, crude oil prices have been trading volatile amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East peninsula and over the worries about a global recession due to US-China trade war.
The global crude oil market had witnessed prolonged supply overhang since previous years. But measures like the deal by OPEC to cut production and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran has changed the focus of market towards the demand side fundamentals.And due to US-China trade war, global economic growth outlook has also hampered, resulting in lower demand. Gasoline is one of the major demand side indicators which suggest the consumption pattern in US economy and other countries about the pace of growth in the market as the US accounts for about 10 percent of global gasoline demand.
In 2019, demand in summer driving season averaged at 9.63 Mbpd, which is 1 percent lower than the demand in prior year. Separately, stocks are also at subdued levels during September and October when the US refineries goes into maintenance and also experiences hurricane season keeping the demand for products at lower levels.
In the determining factor of gasoline demand, GDP also holds the great weightage as major component in calculation of GDP includes personal spending of the citizen of country.